The answer: Probably not.
I just read the recent New York Times article on Motorola's new social-networks oriented phone offering.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/11/technology/companies/11moto.html?hpw
This is anecdotally interesting -- Motorola sees the writing on the wall that they are dead as a mainly-hardware company in the cell-phone space. However, their attempted breakout strategy has some major structural problems, Barring some sort of software/hardware miracle, you are going to see a lot of fragmentation in the Android space; it will be very hard for developers to build the same app, and have it run well on different hardware, screen sizes, keyboard options, add-on APIs. (A historical problem common to the Windows Mobile space -- lots of phone models, few/no killer mass-market applications, largely due to a highly fragmented market of semi-compatible devices)
Contrast this with the benevolent dictatorship in the Apple world...single form factor, centralized app certification. Eventually governments will make then loosen up their control, but by that time they will have already established very useful norms & de facto standards. Slide your betting chips towards those companies who can provide a fully integrated hardware/software bundle... Apple, RIM, maybe MSFT (if they move into the HW business). Palm should be there too, but they seem to be too small to be anything but a Apple wannabe.
The low-probability, but high payoff bet: Nokia & MS finally decide they hate Apple more than they hate each other, and come to terms on a phone + OS + application platform.
Subscribe